Monday, 26 November, 2007

by Ross Louthean
WineWeb

There were few surprises in Australia’s general elections which saw the John Howard Liberal coalition reign come to an abrupt end. However, while the Liberal Party and its country party partner the Nationals are now looking to a complete new leadership, so is the reigning Labor Party Government in the Northern Territory.

Australian Labor Party (ALP) Leader Kevin Rudd is expected to announce the new Federal Government Ministry late this week while outgoing Prime Minister John Howard prepares to pack up to leave Kirribilli House. The reaction on the Australian sharemarket was indifference, with a positive day's trading.

A reason for this was that the market factored in the change of government several months ago when polls that have in the past given a fairly accurate forecast, were showing the Liberal-National coalition was in for a hiding.

That happened in all Australian States except Western Australia where the Liberals held their ground and may win two Labor seats. This premier mining state had clear concerns about workplace reforms that were seen as reintroducing powers to unions. This was amplified by militant unions taking actions on building sites last week in Perth, considered now the hotbed of hardline union activity.

Late today the ALP's high profile television journalist Maxine McKew claimed John Howard's seat of Benelong, while the Liberals Deputy Leader and Federal Treasurer Peter Costello said he would not contest the leadership or deputy leadership. This resulted in a group of Ministers announcing they would be contenders, with media polls late today putting well in front Malcolm Turnbull - a tough ex media lawyer who has headed the Republican push.

Taking second place today was the decision by the NT's Chief Minister Clare Martin and her deputy Syd Sterling to quit the leadership reins, with Martin known to have felt pressure over the tough stance the Howard Government had taken to intervene in some crumbling Aboriginal communities where, in some cases, there were serious issues of abuse and paedophilia. (The Federal ALP basically endorsed those moves).

Clare Martin was swept back into power about two years ago after claiming on election eve that an NT ALP Government would ban any new uranium mines. However, as the NT is a dependency that lives largely on Canberra aid, she changed her tune and, in recent months, was supporting new NT mining projects. The new Chief Minister is Education Minister Peter Henderson and his Deputy is Family & Community Services Minister Marion Scrymgour - a Tiwi Islander.

The booming Australian mining sector already has two key problems - a shortage of professional and skilled labour and escalating operating costs, not helped by a chronic shortage of new machinery and equipment. It now has a third problem, working out how any proposed changes by Labor (with a dominance in the House of Representatives and a more dominant position in the Senate after changings of the guard by mid 2008) will have on such issues as the current fly in, fly out practice that dominates both the mining and petroleum sectors within the Australian hinterland.

The shortage of experienced miners, particularly for underground operations, has already seen some mining companies tempering their fly in, fly out arrangements, where operatives such as jumbo drill operators work one week on for one week off - increasing the pressure on aircraft flights.

While the Rudd approach on mining and business affairs has been softly, softy there are concerns in the mining sector that some ALP polities may be inflationary (though its electoral promises were not as excessive as the desperate Liberals). The uranium sector, which is thankful that Rudd led the push that changed the ALP's highly restrictive uranium policy, will be able to push it further, as two key uranium States - Western Australia and Queensland - refused to embrace new uranium mines, despite continuing to hit explorers for big fees to hold ground and comply with work commitments.

Another key issue will be the increased presence of the Greens whose preferences helped Labor win Tasmanian and other seats and who -- despite not getting close to winning any House of Representatives seats - will have an increased presence in the Senate.