Nuclear power crawling forward
Jim Riccio
World Watch
In 2007, global installed capacity of nuclear power grew by less than 2,000 megawatts to 372,000 megawatts.1 (See Figure 1.) The slight growth in nuclear power is attributable to the addition of three new reactors in India, China, and Romania.2 The new nuclear capacity is equivalent to just one tenth of the new wind power installed globally in 2007.3
Rising gas prices and concern about the carbon dioxide emissions from coal plants have fueled growing interest in nuclear power in many nations.4 But only four countries began building new nuclear reactors in 2007: China, France, Russia, and South Korea.5 The seven new reactors being built in those countries will account for 5,190 megawatts of new nuclear capacity-about 100 megawatts less than was added in 2006.6 (See Figure 2.)
No nuclear reactors were permanently shut down in 2007.7 Since 1964, however, the commercial nuclear industry has retired 124 reactors, amounting to a total of 36,800 megawatts of generating capacity.8 (See Figure 3.)
By the end of 2007, some 34 reactors were under construction worldwide, but 12 of these units have been under construction for 20 years or more.9 In the Americas, only two reactors are being built, in the United States and Argentina; both began construction in the 1980s.10 In Western Europe two reactors are being built, in Finland and France.11 In Eastern Europe, reactors are under construction in Bulgaria and Ukraine (two each), Slovakia (two), and Romania (one).12
In Russia, seven reactors-totaling 4,585 megawatts of electric capacity-are being built; four of these have been in construction for two decades.13 Russia is completing a fast-breeder reactor, which produces more nuclear fuel that it consumes and which uses plutonium, highly enriched uranium, or even mixed oxide fuel rather than the conventional fuel, uranium.14 In addition, construction has begun on two 30-megawatt reactors that will be placed on barges to provide power to remote regions.15
The U.K. government has indicated interest in resuming its long-dormant nuclear construction programs, but it will have to navigate long, uncertain regulatory processes before any new plants can be started.16
Asia accounts for the most nuclear power plant construction, with 20 new reactors currently under way.17 India and China each have six reactors under construction.18 These 12 plants account for 8,130 megawatts-or more than a quarter of the nuclear capacity currently being built worldwide.19 South Korea is building three units, while Japan, Iran, and Pakistan are each building a single nuclear plant.20
Some nuclear projects are being delayed by construction problems. The expected delivery date of the Olkiluoto Finnish plant has been pushed back by at least two years because of concerns about concrete in the foundation and flawed welds for the reactor's steel liner, among other problems.21 Analysts estimate the problems at this reactor could add another 1.5 billion euros to the final price tag, increasing by 50 percent the initial projected cost of 3 billion euros.22
Engineering challenges are also slowing the Chinese and Taiwanese nuclear programs. China's newest reactor was two years behind schedule when it went into commercial operation in 2007. Construction was delayed for almost a year as Chinese regulators examined the welds of the steel liner of the reactor core.23 Despite these setbacks, the government continues to forge ahead with nuclear power. French nuclear giant Areva and the Chinese government will cooperate on future nuclear reactors as well as the reprocessing of nuclear waste.24
In Taiwan, the Lungman reactors have fallen five years behind schedule, due in part to welds that failed inspection in 2002 and had to be redone.25 In addition, the Taiwan Power Company acknowledged that "the rising cost of steel, concrete and other commodities has gutted subcontractor profits, causing them to stop work to renegotiate fixed price contracts."26
In Japan, nuclear power suffered a setback in July 2007 when a major earthquake struck the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant on the northwest coast, the largest nuclear complex in the world.27 The earthquake, measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale, required operators to shut down the plant's seven nuclear reactors, which account for 8,000 megawatts of Japan's nuclear capacity.28 Officially, the complex is slated to remain inactive for at least one year. However, because the quake caused ground motion two and a half times more powerful than the reactors were designed to withstand, questions have been raised about whether they should ever be returned to service.29
In the Middle East and Africa, there is only one nuclear reactor currently under construction: a Russian-designed 1,000-megawatt reactor in Iran.30 But the Iranian nuclear program has spurred interest in the region. In the past year, more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries have announced they intend to pursue the development of nuclear power.31 The interest expressed by majority Sunni Muslim states is viewed by U.S. officials as a direct response to the nuclear ambitions of Shiite Iran.32
In the United States, no new nuclear construction was initiated in 2007, though one reactor was restarted after a 22-year shutdown, and construction resumed on a reactor that had been stalled since 1988.33 Nuclear corporations submitted applications for seven new reactors in 2007, the first ones proposed in at least 30 years, and government regulators expect applications for another 22 reactors in 2008.34 Yet even nuclear industry officials have questioned whether new reactors are economically viable without government subsidies. The president of Constellation Generation Group, an energy company that is planning to build a reactor in the state of Maryland, has stated that it will not build nuclear plants without loan guarantees.35
Wall Street has yet to be sold on new nuclear investments in the United States. Moody's, a credit rating agency, has stated that it "believes that many of the current expectations regarding new nuclear generation are overly ambitious," raising questions about the industry's cost estimates and its schedule for bringing the next U.S. nuclear reactor online.36 Moody's noted that the costs associated with next-generation nuclear plants could be significantly higher than the estimates of approximately $3,500 per kilowatt cited by the industry.37 Moody's noted that its estimates were $6,000 per kilowatt, and it cautioned that nuclear investment could affect corporations' credit ratings.38
Moody's concerns seem well placed. By the end of 2007, new nuclear plant cost estimates for identical Westinghouse-designed nuclear plants had soared, more than doubling to $12-18 billion.39 MidAmerican Energy Holdings, a subsidiary of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., became the first U.S. company to postpone plans for a new reactor when it withdrew its letter of intent to government regulators in late 2007.40 MidAmerican's spokesperson stated that it does not currently make economic sense to pursue this project.41
Jim Riccio is a Nuclear Policy Analyst at Greenpeace in Washington, DC.