Australia could face a nuclear threat from its own region if there is a shift in Asia's power balance, security analysts warn.

While authorities worry about the risks posed by nuclear renegades such as Iran and North Korea, the real threat could be on Australia's doorstep, they say.

That would emerge if China's rise leads to diminishing American influence in the region.

Professor Paul Dibb, from the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, says the growing economic power of Asian countries means they now have the means to develop nuclear weapons.

''When our American friends tell us it's the Middle East which is the most likely area of proliferation and nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, they're not [correct],'' he has told an Asia-Pacific security forum.

''It's Asia that has the most potent latent capabilities to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

''That's because of the advance of their economies and industrial base.''

Much would depend on China's growing economic and political might, and much on how the US dealt with its diminishing global stature, and how this impacted on its role in the Asia-Pacific.

Professor Dibb suggested the catalyst for such a fundamental shift in the nuclear status quo would be Japanese concern over a US withdrawal from the region.

''Japan [goes nuclear] only if it loses confidence in the American alliance,'' he said.

''And if Japan develops a nuclear weapon, China would immediately proliferate a number of ballistic missiles and warheads ... and what's the betting South Korea would develop a nuclear weapon?''

Once those countries were nuclear players, threats would probably emerge from Taiwan, Indonesia and other sources.

The potential threat had been exacerbated by the failure of regional forums such as the Association of South-east Asian Nations and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, to establish mechanisms that would build trust and confidence among member countries, he said.

''You've got no arms control or disarmament agreements worth talking about.''

While Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has put forward a vision for an Asia-Pacific community which could deal with security challenges in the region, that was a long-term proposition.

Professor Dibb said he detected little enthusiasm for the idea, which is being spruiked around the region by Mr Rudd's special envoy, former diplomat Richard Woolcott.