AUSTRALIA could face a nuclear threat from its own region if there is a shift in the power balance in Asia, security experts warn.

While authorities worry about the risks posed by nuclear renegades like Iran and North Korea, the real threat could be on Australia's doorstep if the rise of China results in diminishing American influence in the region.

Paul Dibb, from the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, said the growing economic power of Asian countries meant they now had the means to develop nuclear weapons.

"When our American friends tell us it's the Middle East which is the most likely area of proliferation and nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, they're not," Professor Dibb told an Asian Pacific security forum.

"It's Asia that has the most potent latent capabilities to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

"That's because of the advance of their economies and industrial base."

Much would depend on the growing economic and political might of China, as well as how the United States dealt with its diminishing global stature, and how this impacted on its role in the Asia Pacific.

Prof Dibb suggested the catalyst for such a major shift in the nuclear status quo would be Japanese concern over a US withdrawal from the region.

"Japan (goes nuclear) only if it loses confidence in the American alliance," he said.

"And if Japan develops a nuclear weapon, China would immediately proliferate a number of ballistic missiles and warheads ... and what's the betting South Korea would develop a nuclear weapon."

Once those countries were nuclear players, there would be likely threats from countries like Taiwan and Indonesia too.

The potential threat had been further exacerbated by the failure of regional forums, such as ASEAN and APEC, to put in place mechanisms to build trust and confidence among member countries, Prof Dibb said.

"You've got no arms control or disarmament agreements worth talking about," he said.

While Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has put forward a vision for an Asia Pacific Community which could deal with security challenges in the region, it is a long-term proposition. Prof Dibb said he detected little enthusiasm for the idea, which is being spruiked around the region by Mr Rudd's special envoy, former diplomat Richard Woolcott.

"I don't detect any great interest in the region to have this conversation," Prof Dibb said.