Uranium production, export earnings tipped to jump

Cath Hart
The Australian Business

ADDITIONAL uranium oxide production from Energy Resources Australia's Ranger mine and BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam is expected to drive a 5 per cent increase in Australia's uranium production in 2009.

Latest commodity forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics estimate that the increased output will boost Australia's uranium export earnings by 6 per cent to about $940 million in 2008-09.

ABARE predicted that the combination of increased production and rising prices for the commodity would lift Australia's uranium export earnings by a further 31 per cent to $1.2 billion in 2009-10. World uranium prices averaged $US61.80 a pound last year, a fall of 38 per cent on the 2007 average of $US99.30 a pound.

Higher spot prices in 2007 were driven by a combination of strong demand and concerns about the availability of future supply.

But moves by hedge funds to liquidate their uranium stocks during 2008 put downward pressure on the spot price, forcing it down from $US64.50 a pound in August to $US44 by October.

The increased production by ERA and BHP -- as well as new mine production -- would rank Australia with Kazakhstan and Africa as the top uranium producers, driving an 8 per cent spike in global production for the year, ABARE said.

"However, the timing of new production may be adversely affected in the short term by current credit conditions brought about by the global financial crisis," ABARE said.

"The removal of the ban (on uranium mining) is expected to result in the development of significant uranium deposits in Western Australia.

"Nevertheless, uranium production is not expected until the end of the outlook period (2014) because the development of regulatory frameworks, mine approvals and mine developments are not expected to be completed before 2013."

Projects in the pipeline in WA include Mega Uranium's Lake Maitland project and Toro Energy's Centipede-Lake Way project, while SA has four new projects slated.


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