No explosive growth for uranium

Barry Fitzgerald
Sydney Morning Herald

The slide in uranium prices from the June 2007 record $US136 a pound continues, with the radioactive material last quoted on a spot basis of $US41.75 a pound. The promised boom in prices as the world soaked up the stuff to fuel an explosive growth in greenhouse gas friendly nuclear power has not happened, not yet anyway.

Local investors in the sector know that all too well. The producers are down by 25-35 per cent from their 52-week highs and the explorers are generally showing falls of 50 per cent from their 52-week peaks.

But there is good news in the bad for the sector. The slump in prices, and expectations that there won't be much price action for a couple of years, means that the seeds of the next uranium "boom" are being sown now.

It's an investment theme hammered home this week by Rob Atkinson, the chief executive of Ranger uranium miner Energy Resources of Australia, the listed uranium arm of Rio Tinto. As you would expect, Atkinson is a mid and long-term bull on the outlook for uranium prices.

His optimism is underpinned by the on-going uranium needs of the world's 436 nuclear power plants, the needs of the 53 currently in construction and the demand to come from the 469 at the planned or proposed stage, with China leading the charge.

"I don't think in the mid to long-term there is enough uranium mines or enough uranium supply to meet the quite potentially huge demand from domestic electricity generators, especially from the likes of China," Atkinson said.

It is the other "dynamic" in uranium market identified by Atkinson that was of more interest to Garimpeiro.

"Today's uranium prices, especially for a new entry or exploration company, make it very, very difficult to build, start or operate an economic mine. So I think that there are going to be some delays or cancellations which in the long run will put more and more pressure on the market. That's why the prices will certainly go up," Atkinson said.

Atkinson was being polite to the exploration sector. Another way of putting it would have been to say that there is a whole bunch of junior explorers out there that do not have a hope of getting in to production while uranium prices remain in the doldrums.

But in 2-5 years it could be a different story. But don't expect punters in the sector to be hanging around that long. They will be off chasing near-term gains in others sectors. The caveat on all that is that active uranium explorers – most of them are on an official go slow to preserve funds – will still be able to generate some excitement now and then.

And it has got to be assumed that if China follows through on its massive nuclear power build plans, it won't be long before they start picking off the better locally listed explorers to secure long-term supplies. The Chinese have no problem thinking 10 years out, even 50 years when Beijing so directs.


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